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A novel methodology for forecasting gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline systems

Feng CHEN, Changchun WU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第2期页码 213-223 doi: 10.1007/s11708-020-0672-5

摘要： In this paper, a novel systematic and integrated methodology to assess gas supply reliability is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method, statistical analysis, mathematical-probabilistic analysis, and hydraulic simulation. The method proposed has two stages. In the first stage, typical scenarios are determined. In the second stage, hydraulic simulation is conducted to calculate the flow rate in each typical scenario. The result of the gas pipeline system calculated is the average gas supply reliability in each typical scenario. To verify the feasibility, the method proposed is applied for a real natural gas pipelines network system. The comparison of the results calculated and the actual gas supply reliability based on the filed data in the evaluation period suggests the assessment results of the method proposed agree well with the filed data. Besides, the effect of different components on gas supply reliability is investigated, and the most critical component is identified. For example, the 48th unit is the most critical component for the SH terminal station, while the 119th typical scenario results in the most severe consequence which causes the loss of 175.61×10 m gas when the 119th scenario happens. This paper provides a set of scientific and reasonable gas supply reliability indexes which can evaluate the gas supply reliability from two dimensions of quantity and time.

关键词： natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability evaluation index Monte Carlo method hydraulic simulation

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Modeling, evaluation, and optimization of gas-power and energy supply scenarios

Hossam A. GABBAR,Aboelsood ZIDAN

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年第10卷第4期页码 393-408 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0422-x

摘要： Recently, renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic (PV) are receiving a wide acceptance because they are inexhaustible and nonpolluting. Renewable energy sources are intermittent ones because of climate changes in wind speed and solar irradiance. Due to the continuous demand growth and the necessity for efficient and reliable electricity supply, there is a real need to increase the penetration of gas technologies in power grids. The Canadian government and stakeholders are looking for ways to increase the reliability and sustainability of power grid, and gas-power technologies may provide a solution. This paper explores the integration of gas and renewable generation technologies to provide a qualified, reliable, and environmentally friendly power system while satisfying regional electricity demands and reducing generation cost. Scenarios are evaluated using four key performance indicators (KPIs), economic, power quality, reliability, and environmental friendliness. Various scenarios outcomes are compared based on the defined performance indices. The proposed scenario analysis tool has three components, the geographic information system (GIS) for recording transmission and distribution lines and generation sites, the energy semantic network (ESN) knowledgebase to store information, and an algorithm created in Matlab/Simulink for evaluating scenarios. To interact with the scenario analysis tool, a graphical user interface (GUI) is used where users can define the desired geographic area, desired generation percentage via gas technology, and system parameters. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the regional zone of the province of Ontario and Toronto are used as case studies.

关键词： gas-power renewable key performance indicators (KPIs) reliability

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Bridging reliability and operations management for superior system availability: Challenges and opportunities

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 391-405 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0206-4

摘要： Recently, firms have begun to handle the design, manufacturing, and maintenance of capital goods through a consolidated mechanism called the integrated product-service system. This new paradigm enables firms to deliver high-reliability products while lowering the ownership cost. Hence, holistic optimization models must be proposed for jointly allocating reliability, maintenance, and spare parts inventory across the entire value chain. In the existing literature, these decisions are often made fragmentally, thus resulting in local optimality. This study reviews the extant works pertaining to reliability-redundancy allocation, preventative maintenance, and spare parts logistics models. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of consolidating these decisions under an integrated reliability-maintenance-inventory framework for attaining superior system availability. Specific interest is focused on the new product introduction phase in which firms face a variety of uncertainties, including installed base, usage, reliability, and trade policy. The goal is to call for tackling the integrated reliability-maintenance-inventory allocation model under a nonstationary operating condition. Finally, we place the integrated allocation model in the semiconductor equipment industry and show how the firm deploys reliability initiatives and after-sale support logistics to ensure the fleet uptime for its global customers.

关键词： system availability product-service integration installed base new product introduction service supply chain reliability-maintenance-inventory optimization

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Reliability analysis of urban gas transmission and distribution system based on FMEA and correlation

Su LI,Weiguo ZHOU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年第8卷第4期页码 443-448 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0336-4

摘要： In order to improve the safety management of urban gas transmission and distribution system, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was used to construct the reliability analysis system of the pipeline network. To solve the problem of subjectivity and uncertainty of the multi-expert decision making, the correlation operator was introduced into the calculation of the risk priority number (RPN). Using FMEA along with weight analysis and expert investigation approach, the FMEA evaluation table was given, including five failure modes, risk priority numbers, failure causes and effects, as well as corrective actions. The results show that correlation operator can directly process the linguistic terms and quantify the priority of the risks.

关键词： gas transmission and distribution system risk evaluation reliability analysis failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) correlation operator

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Current situation and future perspectives of European natural gas sector

Vincenzo BIANCO,Federico SCARPA,Luca A. TAGLIAFICO

《能源前沿（英文）》 2015年第9卷第1期页码 1-6 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0340-8

摘要： Gas market in Europe is experiencing a radical change for different reasons, partially determined and accelerated by economic downturn of the last period. In the past few years, many European countries adopted energy policies largely based on the utilization of natural gas. In fact, a sharp increase of the demand was observed and, at the same time, a lot of infrastructures were developed to assure the necessary supply. In the last few years, due to the economic downturn, natural gas demand decreased, causing a consistent oversupply on the market, which altered the consolidated dynamics of the sector. Understanding the changes currently under development in the European gas market is of paramount importance in order to design future strategies for the sector; in particular, it is necessary to understand if the present situation will cause a reshaping of the sector.

关键词： natural gas natural gas market oil-linked contracts supply infrastructures gas hubs

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Will Germany move into a situation with unsecured power supply?

Harald SCHWARZ

《能源前沿（英文）》 2019年第13卷第3期页码 551-570 doi: 10.1007/s11708-019-0641-z

摘要： Together with a huge number of other countries, Germany signed the Paris Agreements in 2015 to prevent global temperature increase above 2°C. Within this agreement, all countries defined their own national contributions to CO reduction. Since that, it was visible that CO emissions in Germany decreased, but not so fast than proposed in this German nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement. Due to increasing traffic, CO emissions from this mobility sector increased and CO emission from German power generation is nearly constant for the past 20 years, even a renewable generation capacity of 112 GW was built up in 2017, which is much higher than the peak load of 84 GW in Germany. That is why the German National Government has implemented a commission (often called “The German Coal Commission”) to propose a time line: how Germany can move out of coal-fired power stations. This “Coal Commission” started its work in the late spring of 2018 and handed over its final report with 336 pages to the government on January 26th, 2019. Within this report the following proposals were made: ① Until 2022: Due to a former decision of the German Government, the actual remaining nuclear power generation capacity of about 10 GW has to be switched off in 2022. Besides, the “Coal Commission” proposed to switch off additionally in total 12.5 GW of both, hard coal and lignite-fired power plants, so that Germany should reduce its conventional generation capacity by 22.5 GW in 2022. ② Until 2030: Another 13 GW of German hard coal or lignite-fired power plants should be switched off. ③ Until 2038: The final 17 GW of German hard coal or lignite-fired power plants should be switched off until 2038 latest. Unfortunately the “Coal Commission” has not investigated the relevant technical parameter to ensure a secured electric power supply, based on German’s own national resources. Because German Energy Revolution mainly is based on wind energy and photovoltaic, this paper will describe the negligible contribution of these sources to the secured generation capacity, which will be needed for a reliable power supply. In addition, it will discuss several technical options to integrate wind energy and photovoltaic into a secured power supply system with an overall reduced CO emission.

关键词： CO₂ reduction mobility sector renewable generation coal commission secured power generation capacity reliable power supply power-to-gas power-to-heat

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腐蚀油气管线的可靠性分析

徐伟,刘茂

《中国工程科学》 2010年第12卷第9期页码 69-72

摘要：

ASME B31G是国际通用的评价腐蚀管线失效应力的标准，考虑到这种方法的保守性，以修正后的B31G模型作为研究腐蚀管线失效应力的基础，考虑管壁厚度、腐蚀速率、工作压力、缺陷深度等随机变量，构建腐蚀油气管线可靠性极限状态函数。然后，采用一次二阶矩法对腐蚀管线进行可靠性分析，得出管线的失效概率、可靠性指标以及剩余使用寿命。此外，为了更加规范的管理腐蚀管线，参照美国石油组织的相关规定，对不同失效概率的管线进行了等级划分。在最后的案例分析中，还讨论失效概率对不同变异系数对的敏感性，计算结果表明失效概率对管壁厚度

关键词：管线腐蚀可靠性分析一次二阶矩失效概率

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Current status and prospects of reliability systems engineering in China

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 492-502 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0172-2

摘要： This study provides a systematic overview of the advent and evolution of reliability systems engineering (RSE) in China, and the latest RSE development, that is, model-based RSE (MBRSE), is emphatically introduced. The establishment of the system architecture and conceptual models of MBRSE is first described. The fundamental theory and methodology of MBRSE are then elaborated, with a V-model as the core of this approach. The development of various MBRSE platforms and the effectiveness of their implementation over the past 30 years are presented. The prospective trends in the development of RSE in China are outlined.

关键词： reliability effectiveness model-based systems engineering reliability systems engineering

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Analysis of inventory level under procurement constraints in supply chain

CHANG Guangshu

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2007年第2卷第3期页码 361-363 doi: 10.1007/s11465-007-0063-1

摘要： Because the inventory is one of the major factors that affect the performance of the supply chain system, efficient reduction of an inventory can effectively reduce the cost level of the total supply chain. Therefore, inventory management is an important means to optimize the operation of a supply chain and enhance the competitive advantage. Considering the (, ) policy in an inventory management, this paper establishes a model of the inventory level. Then, the change of the inventory level with and without the procurement constraints is analyzed, and their expectation and variance calculated. Consequently, the order point can be determined accurately to reduce the inventory level and the operation risk.

关键词： supply efficient reduction system expectation procurement

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Digital twin-driven smart supply chain

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2022年第9卷第1期页码 56-70 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0186-9

摘要： Today’s supply chain is becoming complex and fragile. Hence, supply chain managers need to create and unlock the value of the smart supply chain. A smart supply chain requires connectivity, visibility, and agility, and it needs be integrated and intelligent. The digital twin (DT) concept satisfies these requirements. Therefore, we propose creating a DT-driven supply chain (DTSC) as an innovative and integrated solution for the smart supply chain. We provide background information to explain the DT concept and to demonstrate the method for building a DTSC by using the DT concept. We discuss three research opportunities in building a DTSC, including supply chain modeling, real-time supply chain optimization, and data usage in supply chain collaboration. Finally, we highlight a motivating case from JD.COM, China’s largest retailer by revenue, in applying the DTSC platform to address supply chain network reconfiguration challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic.

关键词： digital twin supply chain management

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Human reliability in maintenance task

Pacaiova HANA,

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2010年第5卷第2期页码 184-188 doi: 10.1007/s11465-010-0002-4

摘要： Maintenance management requirements have another dimension in the present as in the past. Looking for the optimal tools of decision processing is hard. The current concepts have represented the integration of theoretical, technical, and management tools whose applications need actual modification. Technical measurements are expensive and take a long time/term, and it is hard to estimate the economical returns. This paper presents the concept of a maintenance management task and its function in preventing major accidents. The importance of considering the reliability of maintenance tasks and the method to reach it are also discussed in this paper.

关键词： maintenance risk assessment failure reliability prevention

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Pricing and production strategies in remanufacturing from the perspectives of supply chain: Review and

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0251-7

摘要： Remanufacturing is widely recognized as beneficial to the environment and a circular economy. However, remanufacturing is more complex than traditional manufacturing due to the effects of government policy, uncertainty of consumer preferences, competition and cooperation among firms, and so on. These factors motivate academics to optimize remanufacturing outcomes, especially for product pricing and production. This study reviews the published literature on pricing and production strategies in remanufacturing from four perspectives of supply chain, namely, government policy, consumer characteristics, relationships among firms, and supply chain structures. Review results can benefit scholars/practitioners in the future by highlighting the challenges and opportunities in remanufacturing strategies.

关键词： remanufacturing reverse and closed-loop supply chain circular economy

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An overview of the reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 531-544 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0167-z

摘要： Power grids deliver energy, and telecommunication networks transmit information. These two facilities are critical to human society. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive overview of the development of reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks. The main purpose of this review is to promote and support the formulation of communication network reliability metrics with reference to the development of power grid reliability. We classify the metrics of power grid into the reliability of power distribution and generation/transmission and the metrics of telecommunication network into connectivity-based, performance-based, and state-based metrics. Then, we exhibit and discuss the difference between the situations of the reliability metrics of the two systems. To conclude this study, we conceive a few topics for future research and development for telecommunication network reliability metrics.

关键词： reliability metrics power grids telecommunication networks

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Digitalization for supply chain resilience and robustness: The roles of collaboration and formal contracts

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 5-19 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0229-x

摘要： Black swan events such as the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak cause substantial supply chain disruption risks to modern companies. In today’s turbulent and complex business environment, supply chain resilience and robustness as two critical capabilities for firms to cope with disruptions have won substantial attention from both the academia and industry. Accordingly, this study intends to explore how digitalization helps build supply chain resilience and robustness. Adopting organizational information processing theory, it proposes the mediating effect of supply chain collaboration and the moderating effect of formal contracts. Using survey data of Chinese manufacturing firms, the study applied structural equation modelling to test the research model. Results show that digitalization has a direct effect on supply chain resilience, and supply chain collaboration can directly facilitate both resilience and robustness. Our study also indicates a complementary mediating effect of supply chain collaboration on the relationship between digitalization and supply chain resilience and an indirect-only mediation effect on the relationship between digitalization and supply chain robustness. Findings reveal the differential roles of digitalization as a technical factor and supply chain collaboration as an organizational factor in managing supply chain disruptions. Paradoxically, formal contracts enhance the relationship between digitalization and supply chain resilience but weaken the relationship between supply chain collaboration and supply chain resilience. The validation of moderating effects determines the boundary conditions of digitalization and supply chain collaboration and provides insights into governing supply chain partners’ behavior. Overall, this study enhances the understanding on how to build a resilient and robust supply chain.

关键词： digitalization supply chain resilience robustness collaboration formal contract